Summary of Recent Posts

American Jews and Israelis of all varieties argue all the time about the different ways to stop the Palestinian/Israeli conflict.. There is very little chance that we will be able to change the minds of those Jews who put all the burden of the solution on Israel. Despite all the long history to the contrary, they believe that it is incumbent on Israel to give more and more land and rights to the Palestinians who demand more and more without giving an inch and want all of the land west of the Jordan.

It is not possible to change the minds of most of these well meaning, peace loving Jews since contrary facts could not penetrate the minds of the majority of them. It is not lack of knowledge. It is a rejection of facts they do not agree with. I have tried with many American “liberal” friends, but without success. However, in Israel, the stark reality converted most “leftist” Israelis.

Most people’s beliefs can not be changed by facts. The same goes for liberal Jews. Most critical to them is to feel they are “Good Jews.” Which means: consideration to your enemy, love the stranger, and other idealistic feelings they would like others Jews to do so they can feel “good” as Jews. They often show more kindness to the enemies of Israel than to other Jews.

There are multiple reasons for this well ingrained attitude unique to Jews. Many of these Jews have marginal associated with Judaism, or, they believe they can rightfully select and chose what is useful in Judaism or may be somewhat uneasy about their Jewish association.

Obviously this is just a sketch of a multifaceted, very deep issue. For example, how much are we Jews, still living in fear deep in our souls fearful of the danger of being Jews and believe that we should not stand straight and acknowledge our Judaism with pride and satisfaction? Also, what is the impact of the Galut (miserable Diaspora) on all Jews?

It is likely that the impacts of the Jewish Galut will take hundreds of years to wash off and allow Jews to be emotionally free from fear, and the uneasiness not to “irritate the other,” or be too noticed, so we can be safer?

Another important reality is that most people, including well educated people, are strongly inclined to be very selective in the information they accept as valid.- They accept “My Side” information and reject what is not suitable to their belief. And we all do that to a variety of degrees:

“My Side” bias – the tendency to judge a statement according to how conveniently it fits with one’s settled position is pervasive among ALL American political groups.

A great deal of research shows that people are more likely to heed information that support their prior positions, and discard or discount, contrary information....

…The classroom is no great corrective for “my side” bias, at least when it comes to public policy issues.

Daniel Klein, professor of Economics George Masson Univ. - The Atlantic Dec 11, 2011

It is a waste of time to try to convince determined, liberal Jews that Israelis have the right to determine their own future. Let’s spend our passion and energy on other groups, non Jews, to convince them that Israel needs American support to continue as a free nation.

Matania

5/12

Outstanding short presentation by British Colonel Richard Kemp on the conduct of the Israeli Defence Forces -IDF- during the Gaza war.

He said:

..."The Israeli Defence Force did more to safegurd the rights of civilians in the war zone than any other army in history."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NX6vyT8RzMo&feature=colike

Rabbi David Wolpe loves Israel, we have been communicating about Israel for many years. He knows how to reach our soul.

Please listen to his 10 minutes talk, you will grasp the situation better and your heart will be warm with appreciation. Matania

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NDKfPMDjLDs&context=C439ca2eADvjVQa1PpcFPR8zemyNt5fHEMWOGW0ZCIig6jRW3P1uI=

Even if Iran never used a nuclear bomb, one of the key dangers of Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons is nuclear proliferation! A Nuclear Iran will force several Arab states to develop/buy their own nuclear weapons, which the Saudis can do with ease. Nuclear weapon proliferation in the highly volatile Middle East with its sectarian and tribal hate would be uncontrollable.

Yes, it is drastically different to have nuclear weapons by a Western country, like England, France, or Russia, than an Arab country. The reverence for life of their own citizens is so drastically different.

To stop Iran’s rapidly advancing nuclear weapons program, I believe that the best way now, so late in the game, is for the US and Europe to severely attack Syria’s military ASAP. It would be so much easier, even with their Russian air-defense system, compare to attacking Iran’s hidden installations and massive, advanced Russian air-defense systems. Attacking Syria would send a powerful signal to Iran that the World means business, and it could be better for Iran to stop its nuclear weapon program before it is being attacked.

 

If the danger from Iran was only to Israel, the recent promises of president Obama not withstanding, Israel could not depend on the US to stop Iran’s nuclear weapon’s program. What leaders say and do are two different things much of the time. Not only that, there is some possibility that the US may try to stop Israeli’ attack on Iran’s nuclear installations. It may not suite the President’s reelection plans, or another reasons. It is doing it now verbally; note all the trips to Israel of top U.S. officials, from the previous US Chief of Staff, to current US Chief of Staff, and Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta. More over, why is it the responsibility of the US to protect Israel unless it is in the interest of the U.S?  However, the danger is much larger, not only to the total Middle East and the global oil supply, but to Europe and the US too.

Because of the different levels of risk, and the immense capabilities of the US military, Israel and the US naturally view the situation very differently. Israel may be able to destroy some critical portions of Iran’s nuclear fabrication system that may take a relatively short time to rebuild. The US can inflict significantly larger damage that may take years to rebuild.

The US could wait; however Israel is under the gun and can’t wait too long. The risk that Israel, such a miniature country, is facing is almost a national destruction, a second holocaust. The risk to the US in the coming years from  Iran with full nuclear weapon capability is considerably smaller, but also very real. To name just one: Iran supplying nuclear weapons to terrorists who ship it to a US harbor destroying one of our cities. There is no way to stop that relatively easy attack, while Iran would seem innocent.

 

Israel’s urgency also stems from a different grasp of reality. The Israelis can understand the unique mentality, the danger emanating from the deeply religiously grounded Iran’s leadership and its many supporters. As ex. Mosad head Daggan just said, Iran’s leadership is very smart and calculating, able to outsmart the West for many years. They are not fanatically erratic; they know what they are doing. But, the majority of Western leadership and people, especially the less realistic US Left, are unable to grasp the danger from all the various leaders of Iran. It is not just President Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who want to menace the world; they have huge support from the vast military and significant portion of the residents, especially the conservative rural population. Their desire for supremacy is based also on their ancient historical power, an attitude held by a great portion of Iranians.

 

The U.S. promise of American military support has no security value. Israel history is full of false promises and pressure on Israel by different US Administrations. Here are some examples:

1. The State Dept. under General Marshal was dead set against the creation of the State of Israel. And for many decades the State Department continue to support Arab states and against Israel on many occasions.

2. The US embargoed all military supply to the Middle East during the 1947-8 Arab/Israel war was one sided: the US refused to supply even steal plates to protect Israeli buses from sniper attacks. At the same time Syria, Egypt, Iraq and the Saudis had their huge national resources to support their attack on Israel.

3. President Eisenhower stopped the England/France/Israel coalition effort to regain international control of the Sues Canal during the 1956 war after Egypt confiscated it from its owners and stopped Israeli shipping.

4. US pressure on Israel. Israel is a very small country, 20 Israel’s can fit into California. Therefore Israel can not fight effectively a defensive war-- there is no safe place for the population, no place to hide military industry, no place to maneuver. Therefore when Israel is about to be attacked, Israel must start a preemptive war whenever possible. Just a day or two can make a significant impact. It did so in 1967 and won in six days. However, in 1973 Prime Minister Golda Meir succumbed to US Secretary of State Kissinger’s pressure that warned Israel not to initiate a preemptive attack before the Arab attacks. Israel was very close to a defeat at in that war, it prevailed almost by luck. The help from President Nixon, against the advice of Kissinger, was too late to help the war effort, since it came after the bloody Israeli victory. That Yom Kippur war was won with considerably more risk and more Israeli’ bloodshed than was necessary if Israel had a preemptive strike. Note also that the Arab casualties would have been much lower if Israel attacked first, because the battles would have been won faster and with less bloodshed.

5. During the1991 First Gulf War, the US asked Israel not to respond to Iraqi’ rockets and promised Israel that the US would do all it could to protect Israel from Sadam. Prime Minister Shamir promised President Bush not to interfere in the war, and kept it despite considerable internal pressure to destroy Sadam’s rocket launchers. It was determined later that the US did very little to protect Israel from Sadam’s rockets. The US had explained that it would have taken too much military power away from the war. An unjustified excuse, many believed, since Saddam capitulated in a very short time and with minimal effort. US inaction was covered up to minimize conflict with a very hostile US Administration. The Israeli’ population was very upset and stressed at that period counting on false US promises.

 

The main interest of the US is to achieve its own goals and aspirations. We have many good attributes, but like all nations we are NOT an idealistic, benevolent country willing to help others at high costs to our own interests. This should not be a surprise to us, that is the global reality! This is a normal direction that most governments take. In the same way Israel must pursue its own best path to protect itself. And the current vital issue is how to stop Iran’s nuclear weapon program in time.

 

I do not know many military facts, but there is only one way I can see and it is a powerful Israeli air attack only on a select set of nuclear targets that would cause the maximum long term impact. The Iranian’ people would be barely impacted and the embargo imposed on Iran could be then lifted, depending on Iran’s support of terrorism. To overcome Israel’s lack of massive earth-penetrating bombs, there is a possibility that Israel could use miniature/tactical nuclear weapons with low radiation similar to the ones the US developed several decades ago. The propaganda damage to Israel would be high, but the survival of Iran’s facilities is not acceptable.

Obviously the US, the strongest military force in the world now, is capable with ease, to destroy all the Iranian nuclear facilities of significance, and relevant military installations too. The US military has immense amount of resources, especially for such a short term operation that would take a week or so.

The Iranian's response would be mostly terrorism by forcing Hizbullah and Hamas to attack Israeli civilians to the maximum extent possible irrespective of risk to them. That would cause tremendous loss of life and property across much of Israel. There would be very few safe places to hide for the majority of the population. But it is far superior than to be under a nuclear attack!

The recent attacks from Gaza, sending over 100 rockets into Israel in a few days, may be a trial run, or an attempt to warn Israel what could happen if Iran gives the order.

Any way we look at it, it is an intolerable situation. A political solution would be the best, but it is not possible, I believe. All options are very difficult. It is a selection between several unwanted options.

p.s. The pentagon just issued serious reservations about attacking Syria. The Iranians can only laugh at our threat of military action when we are unwilling to take on Syria, a much easier target.

 

Matania

3/12

A comment received:

Dear Dr. Ginosar

Now your talking realpolitic. We Jews have a sentimental and emotional attachment to Israel  that can blind us to the realities of international relations. Friend and foe can change overnight and I am glad you wrote this realistic assessment of the situation. Most people make the mistake of seeing nation states as people. I know most Jews would find your conclusions shocking and I hope, "THE US WOULD NOT PROTECT ISRAEL" should be distributed as widely as possible.

B.

 

I have done this population study eight years ago, but because it is relevant now to the Palestinian’s quest for a state, it is important to understand their population number and trend.

Recently, I was reading research about Palestinian population distribution, and since I have studied population growth the numbers raised a flag in my mind. The numbers seems to conflict with the numbers I usually see in the media, including the CIA website, and some statistical books too.

In the last few years a lot of concerns were expressed that the Palestinian population in the West Bank and Gaza is growing at a very high rate and in the near future will overtake the Jewish population of Israel of 5 million. The former prime minister, Ehud Barak, was so concerned about the growth that he even offered the Palestinans part of Eastern Jerusalem because it is mostly populated with Arabs. He also offered to compensate the areas taken by the "settlements" with land in the Israeli Galil populated by Israeli Arabs to reduce the Arab population in Israel. Barak wanted them be part of the new Palestinian state. Therefore, the actual number of? Palestinian is an important factor in the peace process.

As I looked into statistics of world population growth I noticed that nation after nation has a considerably lower population growth rate then the one claimed by the Palestinians. Then I concentrated on the Arab Middle East and, again, the Palestinians claim of the very high rate of 4% per year is higher than almost all other Arab countries. High population growth is usually associated with high infant mortality, low education, and women subservience. All these factors are not experienced by the Palestinians. Under Israeli administration Palestinian infant mortality was reduced significantly. In addition, the Palestinians education level is much higher than most Arab countries, and Palestinian women have higher education and more freedom than most Arab women.

All of these factors challenged me to look further into their growth statistics.

Let me summarize what I found:

1. Arab [Muslim] countries growth rate:

Syria: 2.6%, a poor country, with life style and culture quiet similar to the Palestinians.

Egypt: 1.9%, a poor country, similar to the lifestyles and culture to the Palestinians

Saudi Arabia: 3.4%, one of the richest countries in the area. Understandably a high growth rate since almost all social services have been paid by the government for decades. Also, Saudi import a large number of foreign workers.

Sudan: 2.1%, with 65% of the population Muslims.

Israeli Arabs: 2.7%, they have a stable life and a much higher standard of living than the Palestinians. Also, many Palestinians have entered Israel both legally [to unite families] and illegally, to become Israeli Arabs to better their standard of living and find security. The number of LEGAL Arab immigration I saw was over 100,000.

2. Palestinian Statistical info *:

Western area: 1967 population 586 thousands; 1986 - 965 thousands, including Arabs in East Jerusalem

Gaza: 1967 population 351 thousands; 1986 - 542 thousands.

Total: 1967 - 937 thousands;? 1986 - 1.507 million

Under Israeli control, when data collection was realistic, rate of growth for those twenty years:? 2.4%.

I do not see any significant reason why this 2.4% rate would have drastically increased during the period 1987 to the year 2000. Contrary, during the last three years of Palestinian - initiated fighting I would expect that the growth rate would go down due to the considerable disturbance to the population, plus the emigration of many of them to safety, especially Arab Christians that have been discriminated continuously by the Muslim majority. Therefore I used the rate of 2.4%, and the Palestinian population in the West Bank and Gaza would have grown from 1.507 millions to currently 2.25 million. This is a far lower than the 3.5 million usually stated by the Palestinans. The Palestinians are claiming an additional 1.25 million! Essentially inflating their number by 50%.

How is it possible that such a large difference exists? Several significant factors may be involved:

1. From the Arab initiated 1948 war, to date, many Palestinians have been sustained by the United Nation relief organization ? UNRWA. Families are paid according to the number of people in the family. Being poor, most families do not report deaths. They also report more births than took place to expand their meager support from the "Rich Western Countries". (The US donates 60% of the funds.) Since local Palestinians supervise these funds they are not inclined to report this distortion of population.

2. I have personally read several edicts by Arab religious leaders that not only permit fabricating facts but say that it is commendable to do so, to help achieve the ultimate goal of defeating the enemy.

3. Professional observer of the Middle East wrote: "Egyptian statisticians, like Egyptian journalists, often seem to make up in imagination what they lack in hard data collection." Raymond Stock, Univ. of Pennsylvania, Middle East Quarterly vol. X-4. I am sure this applies to many other Arab nations.

4. The Muslim leadership in the US funded two Muslim population studies several years ago. I have read that one of them came much lower than they wanted and they fired the individual who did the study and selected another set of results. I believe that their goal was to show that there are more Muslims in the US then Jews, and it is interesting that the number came to six million Muslims, just enough above the about 5 million Jews computed.

The number of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza is likely to be even lower than the 2.25 million indicated above because many Christians Arabs left the Palestinians areas due to severe discrimination by Muslim Arabs. Also, many wealthy Arabs have left the area in the last three years because of the instability there. In addition, a large number of Palestinians moved to Jordan, the only Arab country who allowed them citizenship. In fact some 60% of the 6.8 million Jordanians have been Palestinians or are their descendents. More Palestinians still want to live in Jordan, but can not. Palestinians who want to pass through Jordan must deposit a very high, refundable, fee until they leave Jordan

In addition, hundred of thousands Palestinians left the areas to work in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and other countries with higher wages.

It is questionable if many of the Palestinians who are now living out of the area will want to live in the West Bank or Gaza after the arrival of peace. Even during the "peaceful" years of the Oslo Accord when the Palestinians governed 96% of their own population, corruption and lawlessness have been rampant, the economy was poor, the area small and without many opportunities.

Conclusion: It is likely that the Palestinians have had a similar growth rate** to that of Israel: around 2.4%. Therefore, the number of Palestinans in the West Bank and Gaza is considerably lower than they claim. It is likely to be now around two million total.

Matania

11/03

* Iyunim Bitkumat Israel, Ben-Gurion Research Center, 1999, Vol 9, p.195

** Note, Palestinian growth rate includes their birth rate, minus death rate, minus emigration, the Israeli growth is due to birth rate, less death rate but plus immigration.