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Climate & Topography Shapes the Middle East
Muslim Volatility Can Not Be Stopped in the foreseeable future.
The poor Tunisian pushcart vendor, who started the Arab Spring by burning himself to death, had no hope. The combination of extreme poverty and police brutality lighted his match. This wide spread abject poverty is the common cause of the Arab revolts. And that is driven by increased regional droughts.
The most fundamental thing about the Arab world is that it resides in a vast hot and arid region, some almost a desert. That aridity shaped the religion and way of life of the people from their beginning. Survival is the key. Fundamental scarcity dictates that every tribe is for itself, under autocratic leadership. If you do not obey, you die.
Topography and climate shape a people and their history. Look in Yemen: mud houses on top of one another with no vegetation in sight. Most of the water in Syria and Iraq come from Turkey. Egypt has no rain; the Nile River is the only source of water for 95 million people.
The Middle East volatility cannot be stopped in the foreseeable future, since key conditions that led to it are almost impossible to improve. Israel and the West must get used to that!
The Middle East was always ready- to- explode due to a combination of: scarce water sources, tyrannical religion, women's oppression leading to a very high birth rate; large, deprived, rural population; plus tribal and sectarian hatred. Thus only dictators were able to stabilize their areas. Eliminating dictators opened the doors to massive sectarian/tribal wars. When you add to these weapons of mass destruction held by the fanatic religious leadership of Iran, it would expand the danger to the entire world.
These crucial elements are increasing the danger in the region:
1. An arid region increasing in dryness leading to massive rural hunger and frustration
2. Millions of young rural refugees moving to and destabilizing urban areas
3. Fanatical religion combined with sectarian hatred leading to ISIS and similar radical groups and mass murders,
4. Extremist Iranian religious leaders committed to obtaining nuclear weapons to subjugate the region and destroy Israel and the West
5. A driven, idealistic US president unable to fathom the complexity and explosive danger of the above
Lately two major forces are destabilizing our world order: Islamist violence and Climate Change. The recent Arab upheavals are due in a large part to the increasing aridity of the Middle East driven by Climate Change. Africa is a similar case. California is experiencing its worse draught on record, with no end in sight.
Major parts of the population are uneducated and most are governed by their fanatic emotions, unable to think. Add to that dropping oil income, wealth for the minority only, and tribalism and you get continuous catastrophes, killing hundreds of thousands of innocent Muslims and Christians. No outsider can solve their lack of water, their infighting, hatred, fanaticism. Benevolent dictators are their only hope for the foreseeable future.
Only Egypt President El-Sisi is a ray of hope with his desire to reduce the fanaticism of the Muslim world.
This is the world of unsymmetrical war: small groups of hard to identify people, intermixed with local population, disturbing the lives of millions of citizens, murdering every one they wish to. Aircraft carriers and advanced fighter aircraft are not able to stop these mini wars. These fighting are likely to spill over to us because with a nuclear Iran it would be harder to prevent major catastrophes in the Western world, even larger than 9/11. Iran is supporting global terrorism, and with nuclear weapons Iran would be more aggressive, and drive surrounding Arab nations to get their own nuclear weapons. Nuclear Proliferation in the volatile Middle East is an explosive situation.
President Obama innocence and misplaced idealism. I usually support the elected president, even if he is not of my choosing. Regrettably, Obama did not do well internationally. The global difficulties he faced would have been hard to solve by any president, but almost all Obama's moves were misguided and fruitless, at best. Just one example- denigrating Egypt's General el-Sisi for toppling the Muslim Brotherhood. El-Sisi should have received massive military and financial support from us, not condemnation! What was the Obama team thinking?
President Obama has a very narrow understanding of reality. Few people can truly grasp reality, but a President must! Obama has limited life experience and his dreams are not moderated by facts that he does not want to or able to grasp. Also, he selected only "YES" people for his team of advisers! He is closed in his own limited circle. And our President believes that Iran's extremely smart, immoral fanatic elite will follow their agreements. He also believes that he can civilize Iran's fanatic elite by bringing them into the "Community of Nations"
How can any educated, thinking person believes in this fantasy?
Iran will gladly supply terrorists with small nuclear bombs to ship to ours and Europe shores in any ship they want. It is that easy. Iran also has developed long range nuclear-capable missiles to reach the USA.
Wiping Israel off the map is even easier. One bomb is enough and the fact that 3 or 4 million Muslims will perish too, is immaterial, Iran said: "they will go to heaven to reap their enticing rewards."
And this is the unstable world our idealistic and oblivious President is moving us towards.
Sleep well, if you can.
For info on Climate Change see my blog: www.ginosaronglobalwarming.org