Every one is upset by the high price of gas and tries to find who to blame. Certainly, these high prices are causing a lot of serious troubles to a lot of people, both in the US and globally. However, despite the pain it causes, I believe that this is a very hopeful global development that may save us from a lot of more serious troubles in the near future.

I was listening intently to Dr. King Hubbard, one of the world’s top petroleum geologist in 1963 when I was getting my Masters in management from UCLA. Dr. Hubbard was demonstrating to us his calculations about the US oil supplies that led him to the conclusion that within ten years, the US crude oil supplies would start diminishing. Simply put, the amount we would be using would exceed any new oil finds within the US. A lot of “experts” opposed him and objected to his conclusions.
He was found to be right.

Three years ago, I was at Caltech listening to a similar presentation about the diminishing GLOBAL oil supplies. The vice provost of Caltech, Dr. David Goodstein was using the proven techniques that King Hubbard developed 40 years earlier to show that the global oil supply will reach its peak within ten years.

King Hubbard, and Dr. Goodstein did their best to alert us to the critical fact that crude oil is a limited resource that humanity must conserve. But practically no one is listening.

Dr. Goodstein book: Out of Gas-The End of The Age of Oil - was a best seller, but made very little difference to the US public, who consume natural resources at will, and continue to buy gas wasting cars of all types. The public is unlikely to pressure congress. Since we have very few “statesmen” in the US government or Congress to educate and lead the public, nothing is likely to be done to reduce our dependence on oil. One Congressman from Detroit was able to hold the gas mileage laws static for a quarter of a century, and any attempt to increase the efficiency of cars was stopped by him. Instead of upsetting the applecart, most congresspersons were stuck in their own self interest of reelection, while the needs of the country and the globe, which we are part of, were continuously neglected.

Just some numbers: For decades, the US, with just 5 percent of the world’s population, has consumed 25 percent of the global oil supplies, and also produces 25 percent of the global warming gases. China, with over four times our population, consumes (and pollutes) less than ten percent of global oil. Global oil consumption is over thirty billions barrels of oil annually. Any huge oil discovery with a potential for five billion barrels will increase the oil supply for just a few more months! Global oil will be available for several more decades, but at higher and higher prices. If we were paying current prices a massive transfer of wealth of some 750 billion a year would be going from the US to oil producing nations!

Conclusion: The sharp and painful increase in oil prices will lead to increases in the price of all other fossil fuels, natural gas and coal, which are producing most of the global warming gases. Reduction of global warming gases is a must for global environmental stability and sustainability. Only high oil prices may be able to shock and alert the US public into action and thus lead congress and the government to significantly reduce our wasteful consumption of oil and other fossil energy resources.
The same applies to the rest of the globe. There are energy alternatives we hesitate to use such as wind energy. Its use has increased dramatically across the globe, and it is by far the largest alternative energy source being used globally. We barely use it in the US.

We MUST REDUCE our immense and wasteful energy consumption drastically. No magical technological solution is possible. Also, we must increase our use of non polluting and sustainable energy resources such as wind energy.
To make real impact we have to create grassroots pressure on our own 3 congresspersons. To do this effectively I suggest you join a national organization working to this end, such as NRDC.org, or UCSUSA.org

Matania
7/08