Like most, I wish we did not lose so many soldiers in Iraq and the Iraqis would be living in a stable, non violent democracy. But that is not reality and we should not leave Iraq until Iraq is stabilized and may be strong enough to help us limit Iran's global ambitions.

We are in Iraq because of Iran's ambition for fanatic Islamic domination, starting with the oil rich Middle East.

We went into Iraq three years ago assuming we would stop Saddam from using his chemical and biological Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), and free his people from his tyrannical, murderous rule. Later, when WMD were not found to justify the war the Administration claimed to wish to bring Democracy to the Middle East via Iraq conversion to a Democracy. Now since we did not find WMD was it justified to attack Saddam? Why should the US lose its own soldiers to stabilize Iraq?

Why are we still there?

For a very critical reason: the stability of the Western World.

We went there because Iraq is a major producer of oil and is located strategically in the middle most of both global oil supply (current needs) and proven oil reserves (future needs).

It might have been better, looking back, to have attacked Iran and destroyed its nuclear installations and thus its plan to control the oil rich Middle East. However, we were highly ignorant of Iran's plans, we did not want to accept reality, and also it was not practical to attack it for a number of reasons:

1. We were gravely unaware of the advances Iran attained in its nuclear weapon program.
2. We were not aware how fanatic Iran leadership is and millions of its supporters. We believed moderates were in power.
3. Iran would have presented a considerably more difficult military target; it has four times the land area and three times the population, 65 million people vs. Iraq 24 millions.
4. Iran had a "democratically" elected government and it would have been difficult to" justify" our attack.

Let's look briefly at Iran, the Middle East, and oil: Steady supply of oil is the foundation of all advanced countries from Europe to the US and the emerging giants of India and China. The global economy would be in upheaval if a steady oil supply would disappear or seem to disappear.

Over 60 % of the global proven oil reserves are in the Middle East and are within a short distance from Iran. All oil producing countries in the Middle East are militarily weak compared to Iran. Current Iranian aircrafts and missiles probably could reach most oil fields in the region. And the missile technology supplied by Russia and China allows Iran to develop and produce more advance missile that would cover the Middle East and beyond. A third of the global daily oil supplies of 84 million barrels a day comes from the OPEC countries in the Middle East: Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, and several small oil states on the shores of the Persian Gulf, very close to Iran. If Iran or any other state, such as Iraq, had the military might they could threaten much of the oil fields in the region and cause havoc to the steady global supply of oil.

The threat of disruption of the steady flow of oil, not even the actual stoppage, of some significant oil fields or their shipping harbors can cause economic instability across the modern world. The damage to undeveloped countries would be considerably less since their dependence on modern transportation is much smaller.

You have just to look back at the 1991 Desert Storm war when Saddam took over Kuwait, to see how many countries were willing to actively participate or pay for that war. The threat to the oil supply was clearer then, in the open. The situation is different now. The leaders of most countries are happy to leave the trouble of securing oil supply to the US and England, although they depend on oil not less than we do. They know we can not get out of this responsibility and they are happy that the US is losing some of its military and economic strength in Iraq.

There are additional reasons for staying in Iraq despite the cost in life and increase in our national debt- the US would loose face severely. We would lose much of our ability to influence global and regional events. This can cost us drastically in economic negotiation, influencing target countries such as North Korea, and ability to secure the support of other countries, such as Pakistan to help us fight global terrorism. If we can not be trusted to accomplish our declared aims, our words would not be easily accepted.

Moreover, Iran and other Islamic extremists would expand markedly their attacks on the US and the West to achieve their goal of spreading Islam by the sword. In short, they will believe we are a paper tiger, and act accordingly.

The religious conflict in the Middle East is also important. Iran and the majority in Iraq are Shiites, with extreme Islamic views- as expressed, for example, by the President of Iran. The majority of most other Arab countries are Sunnis, with less extreme views. There is a serious religious rift between the two views. The fear of Iran in Saudi, Egypt and other Arab countries is partially due to this religious difference.

I believe we must stay in Iraq until its government achieves stable control of the majority of their country, which may take several years. However, it is not certain that the Iraqis could do it. Iran is doing its best to destabilize Iraq, and so are local forces. It is so much easier to destroy and so hard to rebuild a country.

The problems we are facing relating to Iraq are many, but let me emphasize just these:

1. The burden of this war is disproportionally on the low income members of our US society, and

2. Our society is suffering by reducing our national ability to pay for needed services- such as rebuilding the areas devastated by last year Hurricanes, or building secure systems to protect us from future floods and other natural disasters.

The war in Iraq costs tremendous amount of money, about $100 Billions a year, and instead of increasing our taxes on those able to pay more with ease, the wealthy members of our nation, we reduce their taxes. Since the cost of the war is not going down, the rest of us have to pay for that war by reduced government spending for social programs, roads, national parks, internal security, and many more necessary elements required by a modern country. Obviously future generations also will pay severely for this war by the burden of our expanding national debt.

Despite all the negatives, we need to stay in Iraq to:
1. Secure global oil supplies,
2. Curtail Iran's plans to expand its power over the Middle East,
3. Stop Iran's attempt to spread its Extremist Islamic religion.

But we should increase taxation now on those who can pay for the war with ease. The spread in income between the lower income portion of our society and the wealthy is draining our national strength in addition to being morally wrong.

Matania
9/06