Should Israel attack Iran’s nuclear installations? A very critical question facing Israeli leadership for years. Itzhak Rabin was very concerned that Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, not Iran, would use nuclear weapons to destroy Israel. Rabin stated that the Palestinians do not represent existential danger to Israel while Iraq would. That was his main reason for getting quick, imperfect, peace with the Palestinians in 1993 - to reduce the “cause” to attack Israel, and to be able to concentrate on Iraq.

Seventeen years later Netanyahu is facing the Iranian nuclear threat.
Some may say, wait, they may not do anything. When you deal with national security you do not ask if the enemy may want to destroy you. It is not their feelings and intentions that you evaluate. You evaluate their ability to do it.

You can not know their intentions and internal politics and who controls the bombs. They can use it at their will, and that is the key. If they have the ability to inflict severe damage to your country, you do your best to destroy that ability! And that is the key criteria to look at.

Four and a half years a go I wrote my friends that the only way to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons is by united, massive economic pressure by all critical nations. I also wrote that it is not likely. However, I did not write you then that I already believed that there is no alternative to attacking Iran. At that time most people would not have grasped this reality, and I did not want you to think I am trigger happy. I am not. I am not advocating attack lightly.

In addition to the refusal of Russia and China to pressure Iran, the US has been weak and only gingerly attempted to build global pressure on Iran. The stupidity of playing the game of “let’s talk” with Iran was so childish. Iran just promised and retreated, again and again and the US and the Europeans let them play with them.

Neither China nor Russia is worried about attack by Iran. Both of these countries will retaliate so severely, that Iran would not dare. They are not led by idealistic thinkers, or concerned about international attitude. Due to China and Russia large size and large population the damage to their nations would not be devastating. Israel is in a different category completely. One nuclear bomb can destroy any of its three large cities, Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, or Haifa, thus causing another Holocaust and crippling Israel as a nation. With more than one bomb Israel is wiped out. Period.

With this reality what can a careful Israeli leader do?
No alternative to bombing Iran’s nuclear installations.

Now, to the some counter points:
1. Only massive, continuous attacks could destroy Iran’s nuclear capability and only the US can do it. But it would not do it in the near future. But, it seems to me that it is also possible that the US would rather wait for another 18 months before it, or Israel would attack Iran. By that time there is some hope that Iraq would be on its own, and Afghan well stabilized and most UN and US troops out of the area. Thus, the exposure of the US personnel would be much reduced and Iranian retaliation less damaging.

2. Even a very powerful attack by Israel will not destroy all their installations and they may be able within a year or two to rebuild them.

3. The US wants peace in that oil region to complete the Iraqi troop withdrawal, to finish in Afghanistan, and to allow free flow of oil from that region. We do not import oil from there but the temporary global shortages would cause very high prices.

4. That attack on Iran’s nuclear installations would energize and drive both Hamas and Hizbullah to attack Israel with all the means they have. They will drop any constrains they may still have and send all the rockets they can on most of the Israeli population. From Jerusalm to Haifa, and the Negev. Some Israeli Arabs may attack too.
However, I do believe that the bark of the Iranians, Hizbullah and Hamas, and the threat that Iran will attack the US navy, are serious, but not as fearful as is the common belief. The Iranians are banking on the idea that every one think they are crazy and uncontrollable, and on the idea that they are able to do any think they say. I do not believe so. But you have to plan for that possibility anyhow.

5. The Arab countries would be relieved that Iran’s nuclear ambitions have been cut. But none would be friendlier to Israel.

A number of war simulations were made in the last year in several US institutions (and many more in Israel) to check for potential outcomes. From a military point of view Israel can inflict severe, but not devastating enough damage to Iran’ nuclear program. The main political results were that the US/Israel relationships would be severely damaged. And the US can easily retaliate against Israel in the economic and political areas, and the UN too. And the US is the main friend Israel has.

Some points on Israel’s military strength:
Israel spent billions to acquire the most advanced American fighters F16-I and modified them for long flights to reach Iran and back. But the flight back is not important. Many Israelis will be willing to go one way only to save the nation. The aircrafts also have Israeli electronics to prevent possible US interference or monitoring.

Last year Israel tried to tell Iran that it has the capability to attack it. Israel carried an extremely large maneuver over the Mediterranean with over one hundreds aircrafts flying the equivalent distance to Iran and Back. But it did not impress the Iranians. They know that it was done in fear, not from easy ability to impact Iran

Israel use of small tactical nuclear weapons would increase Israel ability to destroy the underground nuclear facilities. But some nuclear sites are near population centers. So you use non nuclear bombs to attack targets near population centers, and use small nuclear weapons to attack remote, sparsely populated installations.

Israel just demonstrated its new large, long range, 20 hours mission, pilotless aircraft that can provide remote sensing and, what I believe could also carry weapons.

Israel has three German-build conventional submarines, carrying nuclear warheads. At least two are near Iran’s shores regularly. It is very hard to stop short range nuclear weapons from close by submarines. Iran is well aware of that but the threat did not slow them down. Probably the opposite.

The US is trying every thing to stop an Israeli attack:
A lot of promises were given all the time by different administrations- but I would not count on them to protect against nuclear attack. It is normal for the US, like any other nation, to look first for its own interest. And Israel must look for its own survival needs. Severe disagreements are likely.

The US provided anti missile defense to Israel with their American troops. But no anti missile defense is fully capable of stopping long range missiles.
The US, NATO and Israel carried some large military maneuvers as if to tell Iran we are serious. Iran does not buy it. They know all our limitations and can outsmart us any time.
The US may actually threaten to stop the attack by force. I hope it does not come to that.
Note that the US Chief of Staff was recently three days in Israel.

Another US concern is that the current civil rebellion will fizzle if Israel attack, a valid concern. However, I do not believe a regime change is likely. The extreme Iranian government would not let the rebels succeed. But an Israeli attack would unit the country behind the government.

Another critical issue we need to think about is nuclear weapon proliferation. Iran’s nuclear weapons would force to the Saudis and Egyptians to develop their own nuclear weapons. With multiplicity of nuclear weapons in that volatile region we would be on the verge of nuclear war all the time. These Arab regimes may be overthrown, or sympathizers in their military would give nuclear weapons to terrorists. This is intolerable situation both regionally and on a global scope.

With all the negatives above, and even more possible, can Israel risk an attack on Iran nuclear installations? I believe yes. There will be a lot of Israeli civilian casualties and damage. There will be immense global outcry; there will be real boycotts against Israeli products. Condemnations will not stop, and for good reason. But the choice is between two bad alternatives. There is no possible good alternative. And the worse alternative is letting Iran dictate if Israel survives or not.
Remember, we are talking about the likely murder by Iran of several million Israelis. The fact that hundred of thousands of Palestinians will also be killed is not important to fanatics.

This is not a game. Massive destruction is on the line.
Remember the great advice of old: When some one comes to kill you, kill them first!

All my life I hated war and all the suffering that innocents face. However, if I was in Netanyahu’s position I would plan to attack at the right opportunity. There is no alternative.

The summary below points to the fact that Iran is also working on a nuclear MISSILE. It is only a matter of time, and a short time it is. They may use it before it is perfected.

Nuclear Inspectors: Iran Worked on Warhead
The United Nations' nuclear inspectors last week declared for the first time that they had extensive evidence of "past or current undisclosed activities" by Iran's military to develop a nuclear warhead, The New York Times reported. The report—issued by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)—cited new evidence that appeared to paint a picture of a concerted drive in Iran toward a weapons capability. Echoing the Obama administration, the agency described an escalating series of worrisome steps by Iran: the enrichment of uranium to 20 percent, its acknowledgment of a secret enrichment plant in Qom and its rejection of a deal to enrich its uranium outside the country. The Islamic Republic also told inspectors it was preparing to make its uranium into a metallic form—a step that is widely viewed as necessary for making the core of an atom bomb. AIPAC 3/10

I feel a lot of anger about anti-Semitism, but it did not start this way at all…

When I was a student at the University of Washington in the mid fifties I looked for a room in the university district and answered an ad. After talking for a few moments, the landlord asked me if I was Jewish. I said yes. She answered: "I do not rent rooms to Jews."
I started to laugh heartily and told her: “Thank you, thank you. I heard about this kind of thing but I did not believe it. Now I know.” And I had a big smile on my face.
She stood there with an open mouth. But it was fun and a big joke for me. You see, I was born and raised in Israel and never felt discrimination. I am proud of my faith and consider it outstanding. It certainly was her problem, not mine.

This anti-Semitism was not limited then to just ordinary people. Even the wife of a Washington State Senator had her own way of looking at Jews. When we talked about Israel at a formal gathering with foreign students in the capital Olympia, she asked me: "Are you a Jew?" I said, yes, she said: "You do not look like a Jew."
I decided not to answer her.

Many of my Jewish friends here had considerably worse experiences, they were beaten because they were Jews. That was the experience of many Jewish kids on their way to school in different American cities even as late as the mid sixties. And my friends carried their frustration and humiliation with them to this day.

I have to say this because it has been for long on my mind: US Jews of WWII should have been ashamed about their conduct regarding the Nazi Holocaust.
American Jews kept quiet about the Nazi’s murders of Jews; may be because the long anti-Semitism in the US then. The Jews here did nothing of value to help their own relatives that they left in Europe not a long time earlier. Yes, many American Jews felt strangers in the US and were fearful for their own low status, but this does not justify their inaction.

I was a youngster in Israel then. We, half a million Israelis were under British occupation and did not have almost any options. The British were determined to stop any Jewish immigration before, during, and after WWII. But despite that the undergrounds brought in thousands of “illegal” refugees.
Separately, although related, the US under FDR was anti-Semitic; not only it did not allow Jews to come here to escape Nazism, but also pressured other countries to reject any Jews. I believe it was one of the ugliest periods in US history. I saw Eli Wiesel deep pain about FDR and Churchill lack of any action to protest the murder of Jews from its inception, and “wonder” why they did not bomb the rail lines and concentration camps to slow down the Holocaust. He told us that he asked Generals from the US and Russia- but none gave him a meaningful answer.

But I want to talk more about the recent period.

I never felt discriminated against in the US; not on the job, not in my private life. So, I ignored this issue and thought it had disappeared in the US and in much of the world. The Arabs had taken up the baton of Jew-haters with vengeance, and, again, no country called them on that. But anti- Semitism did not die in Europe. It just took a different form: hate towards Israel – the Jewish state.
Look how many times the headlines say: “the Jewish state”. How many times they call Italy “the Catholic state”?

As we all know, the millennia-old discrimination- often hatred- against Jews was subdued around the world after the Holocaust and this seemed briefly to have changed to public and official admiration to the emerging state of Israel .
After the euphoria of the six days war, the admiration for a weak Jewish state slowly changed. But after Israel won the hard struggle of the 1973 war, things changed for the worse. The world was willing to accept the weak Jews, but not a strong Israel. Now Europe, and others were open in their dislike of Israel . Some said it is not politically correct to hate Jews so the hate is disguised as hatred against Israel. Whatever is the excuse, I started to realize that the old, ingrained deep Christian anti- Semitism never died down.

We do not want to look into this but it is imbedded in the teaching of Christianity. Some fifteen years ago I watched a two hour PBS documentary about the potential for another Jewish Holocaust. Christian clerics of different denominations discussed in great details their great concerned about a repeat occurrence. They pointed to portions of the New Testament that contained the negative teachings and what their experience tells them. They were all highly concerned that the root cause of hatred was in some of these teachings, and that it was still preached to many Christians around the world. Obviously it varies across the denominations and across the ministers and priests involved. But they believed that unless efforts are made by the leaders of Christianity to erase sections in the New Testament, or advocate against the negative teaching of hatred to Jews, we are likely to experience another Holocaust.

The strange attitude against Jews continues even in the US. A few years ago I gave a seminar about Judaism in a church. Afterwards I heard two women saying: “You know, they are not so different from us.”
The burning of three synagogues ten years ago in my city, Sacramento, and the vandalism of two synagogues by Nazi markings recently are ugly reminders. However, they are more likely to be done by loners, and I hope do not represent core hatred.

The outpouring of hatred on Israel emanating from most European countries, both by institutions and governments, are clear indications of anti-Semitism at its worst- deep, inherent, unashamed. The right of existence of no other county is so contested, so much under attack. Many UN organizations exclude Israel. Boycotts against Israeli products are initiated in many European countries.

While Israel cautiously defends its citizens against pre meditated murderers who use civilians as shields, Israel is singled out as the aggressor by both European and US media. While at the same time, the murder of hundred of thousands of Africans by Arab government of Sudan, to mention just one example, is rarely in the media. Just look at any American newspaper how they represent Israel vs. how they represent the intentional murderers of Israelis. Or for that matter how Israel is almost always singled out as the villain against Arab “militants” – obviously terrorists.

I thought that after the continuous murders of Muslims by Muslims in Iraq , the West would finally understand the murderous mentality of extreme Muslims, but I did not hear any outrage against this inhumanity even from Muslim countries. While hundreds have been murdered every month in Iraq by their “brothers,” little protest is expressed in the Western media, while if a terrorist is killed by Israel, Israel is castigating on the front-page.

These are but a few of the examples we can see all around us. Many are worse. But I hope you are aware of this trend of hate against Israel .


It is difficult for me to express my anger against the anti-Israeli, anti-Semitism that is so prevalent around the world.
I am deeply angry that for thousands of years we, Jews, have been discriminated, humiliated, expelled, and murdered just because we are Jews. And with no end in sight. I am so angry, I can’t express it in acceptable words to be seen in public.
Enough is enough. We should not, as a minimum, be quiet about it and should express our individual and collective outrage to those who may be able to change.

Now, in a quiet moment I know that anti-Semitism will stay with us for a long time. That is the reality and time to accept it. By accepting that anti-Semitism is here, and will continue, we may be less outraged and more likely to plan our response to it effectively rather than being surprised and frustrated. May be when we grasp that Israel will continue to be hated and vilified, we can spend our energy finding ways to smartly act against it.

Again, we can not do anything about these negative feelings against us, but we may find ways to reduce their occurrences and impacts.

Now, after I expressed my frustration I need to remember:
BY MAKING US ANGRY AND SURPRISED, THE ANTI-SEMITES ACHIEVE THEIR GOAL OF INTIMIDATING US AND DISTURBING OUR LIVES.
WHY HELP THEM?

Here is a thoughtful response by a friend to my last blog: Judaism Lost its Compass.

Mat:
Humanity has been given sufficient time to study this inexorable catastrophe of Global Warming. Yet little action has been taken. Must we Jews once again become the people’s prophets who lead Earth’s people to safer grounds? For centuries, Jews have been the conscious of humanity, but to what end? It has been a thankless task culminating with the Holocaust.

Again and again, we have made strenuous efforts to right this planet’s course. Sometimes it worked, but alas and alack, never permanently. Good efforts fade from people’s minds and memories as each generation moves on. Just look at our relationship with the African-American community. Jews have been vilified by each succeeding generation. But has anyone ever bring up the fact that the first president of the NAACP was a white Jew? You mention the murder of a Jewish boy who went south to register Black voters. Yet that has faded with time.

As a bone given to a dog, Jews were given a homeland and then left to their own devices, only to be harassed unceasingly by its neighbors. Yet, with the impeding development and possible use of a nuclear device by Iran, how much of the world gives a damn about what might happen to the people of one of the world’s oldest religion, this “conscious” of the world’s morality. Our ally, the US, continues to spend its money buying oil from our pronounced enemies. (I still maintain that Saudi Arabia were the true instigators behind the Iraq war.) China and Russia are reluctant to impose heavier sanctions on Iran. What do these massive countries care about a little democratic nation whose size is such that you can fly over it literally in minutes?

In the UK, many Israelis have had warrants sworn out against them listing them as war criminals. Travel to England, France, Germany and the Scandinavians countries has become a dangerous venture, not only for Jews, but for any Caucasian.

I maintain that it is time for others to pick up the moral gauntlet. In every religion, a moral code exists, even in Islam. Yet no one seems to be adhering to it, much less to take the lead. Maybe it’s time to pass the baton. I know, I know, Mat, someone will say, “Don’t you worry about what will happen to your children and grandchildren?” Of course, but have we not passed the ”tipping” point? What steps do I take to protect them now?

H.

For many decades modern Judaism in the US has focused its main attention on Tikkun Olam, making this world a better place to all humanity. The idea was to make our outstanding Mitzvot relevant to today’s world by minimizing human suffering. Kashrut laws were changed, for example, to be concerned about animal welfare. Our mitzvot that focused on Jewish welfare were broadened to care for people suffering every where, such as Darfur.

We were active in the anti-discrimination movement from the beginning. Who does not remember the murder of the Jewish youngster in the South while registering African Americans.
Who does not remember Rabbi Heschel marching hand-in-hand in protest with Reverend Martin Luther King.

But for the last decade we are ignoring the key Tikkun Olam issue of our times; the unique, all encompassing danger to all humanity- Global Warming.

I have tried to interest Jewish leaders here and on a national scale in Global Warming, but with no result. The Jews, like many Americans, are mainly focused on their own private lives, or some good souls on the immediate community. May be they feel Global Warming is the problem of the Goim, not ours. It is not a Jewish issue like Soviet Jewry was. Is it?

Is the survival of modern life, the sustainability of our world, the pending suffering of hundreds of millions of people across the globe less important than any other issue?

I have seen nearly zero participation from the Jewish community in my own town- Sacramento, and the United States in this subject. Some local actions are commendable, but ineffective. We need national voice, a powerful one.
Unless we raise large outcry, create political pressure of large magnitude, it will be ignored by the President and Congress. Congressman Waxman of Los Angeles and Senator Boxer of California have put their careers on the line to advance the fight against Global Warming. I hope they have substantial private support from powerful Jews, but they do not get the support from the Jewish community nation wide on the scale they need and deserve.

Yes, some Jewish leaders went to Congress to express their concerns about GW, but that is about that. That’s nice but not influential. Congress does listen to a mass public pressure- letters and phone calls, but they did not witness any significant, consistent, Jewish public outcry about the lack of action in Congress. Even Conservative Christian groups are working hard against Global Warming, why are we so late in our grasp of the issue?

We do not see any mass Jewish movement, no mass literature, no repeated discussions in Temples, nearly nothing of substance. I read nothing in the mass media or the web either on a strong Jewish presence on Global Warming.

We have lost our desire to make this world a better place to all humanity. We have lost our focus on Tikkun Olam.

O’ Yes, it is also an issue of Jewish survival; when our world would be in the midst of global suffering due to the deterioration of the climate, Jews may be again the scapegoat.

Finally the Egyptians are taking seriously the problem of smuggling along the southern Gaza border. The large number of Palestinian tunnels are used to smuggle luxuries, people, money to support Hamas, and especially weapons. I am sure Egypt is pressured by Israel and the US to stop the free flow of missile and rocket parts that Hamas and other groups are using to assemble their rockets that attack Israel.

The main danger is not the small, inaccurate rockets that are primitive in nature, have low explosive power and also poor accuracy. The main problem is that Hamas is assembling sophisticated rockets from Iran that can hit main Israeli canters, even Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.

Israeli military commanders informed the Knesset recently about this increased danger.
Adding to the danger is the continues planning by Iran to attack Israel by rockets from the south – Gaza, and the north – Hezbollah, if Israel bomb Iran’s nuclear installations.
That could put most Israelis in danger and could cripple the country.

The reality is that Hezbollah already has a much larger number of rockets than it had before the 06 war and many more long range rockets than before. Those long range rockets forced most Israelis in the North part of Israel, including Haifa, to their shelters stopping most civil and commercial activities there. If Hamas would join the fight, and there is no reason they would not, much of Israel would be frozen.

Just imagine if the West Bank would be free to have clear borders with the outside world and no Israeli military there. Any instability could lead to rocket attacks from all directions from Arab terrorists imbedded inside civilian areas. And Israel will have to counter attack with powerful forces that will kill a lot of Arab civilians.

And the world, as before, will blame Israel for inhumanity towards the Palestinians.

Matania

Egyptians build steel Gaza wall
By Christian Fraser
BBC News, Cairo

Egypt has begun constructing a huge metal wall along its border with the Gaza Strip as it attempts to cut smuggling tunnels, the BBC has learned.

When it is finished the wall will be 10-11 km (6-7 miles) long and will extend 18 metres below the surface. The Egyptians are being helped by American army engineers, who the BBC understands have designed the wall.

The plan has been shrouded in secrecy, with no comment or confirmation from the Egyptian government.
The wall will take 18 months to complete.
For weeks local farmers have noticed more activity at the border where trees were being cut down, but very few of them were aware that a barrier was being built.
'Impenetrable'
That is because the barrier, made of super-strength steel, has been hidden deep underground.

The BBC has been told that it was manufactured in the US, that it fits together in similar fashion to a jigsaw, and that it has been tested to ensure it is bomb proof.
It cannot be cut or melted - in short it is impenetrable.
Intelligence sources in Egypt say the barrier is being sunk close to the perimeter wall that already exists. They claim 4km of the wall has already been completed north of the Rafah crossing, with work now beginning to the south.

The land beneath Egypt and Gaza resembles a Swiss cheese, full of holes and tunnels through which the Palestinians smuggle the everyday items they are denied by the blockade.
But the Israelis say the tunnels are also used to smuggle people, weapons, and the components of the rockets that are fired at southern Israeli towns.

The wall is not expected to stop all the smuggling, but it will force the Palestinians to go deeper and it will likely cut the hundreds of superficial tunnels closer to the surface that are used to move the bulk of the goods.
****